The Academy Awards are on February 26th (Sunday night) and below are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE: Moonlight
I’ve seen the two favorites Moonlight and La La Land. The latter is the safe bet, but I just watched La La Land on Thursday and was underwhelmed. La La Land is harmless, self-indulgent, set in the present while reminding us of the past. Moonlight is set in the past but is about the present. Moonlight to win, it’s more important.
BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle
Damien Chazelle is favorite, so I’ll go with him. He should have been nominated for director for Whiplash which is his best film. Barry Jenkins has an outside chance for Moonlight.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE: Casey Affleck
Denzel Washington is the joint favorite, but he’s won a couple of time before. The assault allegations may hurt Casey Affleck's chances with voters. Even though I didn’t love Manchester By The Sea, I think it's the kind of oscar-baity role that will win. Fences winning for both Davis and Washington might happen, especially with #OscarsSoWhite controversy of last year. Could there really be three black actors winning in the four actor categories? I don't see it happening, so my money's on Affleck.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE: Emma Stone
Emma Stone for La La Land is the betting favorite. I hope Isabelle Huppert surprises like she did at the Golden Globes, and it would be justice because Elle was snubbed for a Foreign Language Film nomination. Popular Jennifer Lawrence beat veteran Emmanuelle Riva, and I expect the same thing to happen here with the crowd-pleasing Emma Stone beating the darker, subtle work of Huppert.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Viola Davis, Fences
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Manchester by the Sea to win. Hell or High Water and The Lobster are more original though, so I hope one of those can pull off an upset.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Moonlight
FILM EDITING
La La Land WINNER: Hacksaw Ridge
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Toni Erdmann WINNER: The Salesman
A difficult category. Not a clear favorite. Front runner Toni Erdmann has won precursor awards. The Salesman has picked up steam due to Iranian director boycotting the Oscars in protest of Donald Trump’s refugee ban. I’m sticking with Toni Erdmann. Asghar Farhadi won for A Separation just a few years ago, a film that has some similarities to The Salesman.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Zootopia
CINEMATOGRAPHY
La La Land
COSTUME DESIGN
Jackie WINNER: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
PRODUCTION DESIGN/ART DIRECTION
La La Land
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Star Trek Beyond WINNER: Suicide Squad
VISUAL EFFECTS
The Jungle Book
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
O.J.: Made in America was riveting to watch, although did voters sit through all 7h 47m?
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
The White Helmets
SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)
Piper
SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)
Ennemis Intérieurs WINNER: Sing
ORIGINAL SCORE
La La Land
ORIGINAL SONG
"City Of Stars" from La La Land
SOUND EDITING
Hacksaw Ridge WINNER: Arrival
SOUND MIXING
La La Land WINNER: Hacksaw Ridge
After the ceremony, I will share how many I got right= 17/24
Will you be watching the Oscars? What are your predictions in the main categories? Which are your favorites of the nominees? As always, comments are welcome
I keep talking about how the Oscars *always* have at least one big surprise/upset each year, and I'm hoping this year it will be in the Best Picture category. I'm rooting for Moonlight so hard!!
ReplyDelete@Courtney: I'm rooting for Moonlight for the biggest awards too. But I'm ok with La La Land winning best song and other technical awards. Sometimes they give the oscars to the wrong films, Whiplash is better than La La Land.
ReplyDeleteGood set of predictions. Oddly enough the only category for me where everyone deserves a win is Best Supporting Actor - as they were all fantastic. There wasn't one nominated movie in particular this year that I could say I loved like I have in past years. I liked them all well enough - just not loved one like say I did The Revenant or Birdman and a few others of past years. My fav. was Nocturnal Animals and it didn't even get nominated. ha! For me, if I have to pick a best pic - it would be Lion. But you are spot on Best Actress.. Huppert was amazing.. truly. ah well.. maybe one year they will just let us vote and get it right.. hahahahaha
ReplyDelete@Peggy: Thanks, I took another look at your Best Supporting Actor post. I agree Michael Shannon was memorable in Nocturnal Animals, although I think he is a long shot to win.
DeleteHa, yes, every year the Academy messes up in some categories. It’s almost to be expected, and I think their voting system is flawed. Seems to be the best campaigns often determine the winners, not necessarily the quality of the films. So the awards are a bit of a sham really with several praised films not even in the line-up. Bloggers and critics still matter.
I would like to see Under Sandet take the prize, but odds are against it. I have watched so few of the nominated movies that I am really not qualified to rate them. However I could wish for some attention to Arrival.
ReplyDelete@TSorensen: Under Sandet/Land of Mine is among my top 5 of this year’s nominees for sure, although it’s been out for a while and I have it on my top 10 for 2015.
DeleteFrom the nominees, I particularly liked Hell or High Water, Moonlight, Zootopia, Arrival, Toni Erdmann, and O.J.: Made in America. Yet to see Silence, Elle, A Man Called Ove & The Salesman.
There was a time when I'd have seen half the contenders by the time the Oscars rolled around (at least the ones that had been released in the UK, as sometimes they held them back in the hope that an Oscar would boost foreign box office). This year, I've not seen any of the films you mention. Almost saw La La Land this week but plumped for T2 instead.
ReplyDeleteI have seen The Lego Batman Movie though.
@Rol: Yes, distributors hold them back here in Denmark too, had to wait until Feb for Moonlight and La La Land. T2 is out here in March.
DeleteI try and be selective and skip the Oscar-baity ‘inspiring’ stories. Seen enough of those. I prefer films that can surprise and the foreign language category is usually a good place to look.
La La Land is similar to Scorsese’s New York, New York (1977), so if you’ve watched that one, you won’t be missing much by skipping La La Land.
Saw La La Land and T2 on the same week so a bit of an eclectic mix - I enjoyed La La Land but like you was a bit underwhelmed. Not quite sure how it has captured the imagination to such an extent. Am putting it down to the same reason the musicals of the 30s/40s all did so well - They took people's minds off what was happening in the world around them. Maybe they are just what we need right now!
ReplyDelete@Alyson: Thanks for weighing in. Yes, La La Land is popular as escapist cinema. Whether that kind of fluff should be in contention to win Best Film of the year at the Oscars I have my doubts about.
DeleteThat’s where the Golden Globes got it right this year with musical/comedy and drama in separate categories. I wish they had category for horror, sci- fi, and so on, that would be more inclusive. People go on and on about the lack of diversity of black and Asian roles, but surely the various genre of film are marginalized during awards season too.
Dude you nailed it with Moonlight. I agree the better movie did win, and I loved La La Land. Its just that for this time, its important that it won
ReplyDelete@TheVern: Yep, better and more important. I just shared my reviews of La La Land and Moonlight today here on the blog.
ReplyDeleteYes, Moonlight is a zeitgeist film. The political times plus recent increase of black academy members may have helped its cause in the voting system. Although Barry Jenkins said the film was not intended as an answer to #OscarsSoWhite.